Summary: Moses and the prophets of Israel predicted aspects of Israel’s population size that match what we see today in unique and amazing ways.
But it shall come to pass, if thou wilt not hearken unto the voice of the LORD thy God, to observe to do all his commandments and his statutes which I command thee this day; that all these curses shall come upon thee, and overtake thee: – Deuteronomy 28:15 (KJV)
The Consequences for Breaking the Covenant
The book of Exodus tells how the people of Israel were brought out of slavery in Egypt and came to Mount Sinai. There they entered into a covenant with God, with the ten commandments being given as the stipulations, and the Israelites agreeing to keep the law. God would be their God and they would be his special covenant people, having additional responsibilities and benefits.
The centuries of Israel’s history which followed featured episode after episode of covenant breaking by the Israelites, while God sent a string of prophets calling them back to himself. The prophets warned the people of the dire consequences that would come about if there was no repentance.
One category of predictions by the prophets had to do with the population size for the people of Israel. When looking at the history of the Jewish people even up to today, it can be seen that their population levels match these predictions in an uncanny way.
The main consequences warned by Moses and the prophets included the predictions that:
- The Israelite kingdom would be destroyed
- The people would be scattered among the nations
- In these foreign lands, they would be uniquely and persistently persecuted
- But they would be preserved, and one day returned to the land by God
The steps of this sequence were investigated in the film The Israel Dilemma. A surprisingly impressive pattern of evidence was profiled in the film in a period that lasted until the return of Jewish groups from Babylonian captivity under the leadership of Ezra and Nehemia in the 5th century BC.
However, as amazing as the pattern of evidence is, there are clear indications from the Bible and history that this initial sequence did not completely fulfill the prophecies. In fact, this sequence was repeated a second time in history, in a more pronounced way, leading up to events in our own time. This will be the focus of the second half of the investigation to be covered in the film The Israel Dilemma II (currently being edited).
Population and the Second Sequence of the Prophecy
The existence of the second sequence of this prophecy is a very controversial topic, because it connects to different views on subjects where people have strongly-held beliefs. These beliefs relate to the nature of Israel’s “chosen” status, the relationship between Israel and the Church, various views about end times scenarios, and generally how we should read and understand the message of the entire Bible.
While the film will not focus on final answers for all of these questions, they are unavoidable for any in-depth investigation of Israel’s history. One approach that can contribute to the debate is to investigate whether Israel’s history actually matches the prophecies made thousands of years ago. This could help determine whether God’s hand is still on this people in a special way.
When looking at the prophecies, there is one curious feature that seems to be underreported – the size of the Israelite/Jewish population. According to Moses, one consequence for breaking the covenant is that Israel’s population would remain small as they endured persecution in the lands where they had been scattered.
And ye shall be left few in number, whereas ye were as the stars of heaven for multitude; because thou wouldest not obey the voice of the LORD thy God. – Deuteronomy 28:62
When Moses wrote this statement the Israelites had recently come out of Egypt where (despite the oppression they faced) he records that their numbers had mushroomed to over 600,000 men of military age (Ex. 12:37). Adding women would make for an adult population over 1.2 million. If they were multiplying as rapidly as the Bible indicates, there would have been more children under the age of 20 as there were adults 20 and up, for a total population perhaps around three million.
The Israelites’ population recorded in Numbers chapter 1 was about the same as that of Numbers chapter 26, which was nearly 40 years later. The exceedingly great multiplication they had experienced in Egypt was over, and the effects of warfare, disease, and mishaps normal to ancient populations had taken effect as part of God’s judgments. Their growth was stemmed.
The population of Israel may have peaked around the time of kings David and Solomon. The size of armies for Israel and Judah listed in 2 Samuel 24:9 suggest a total population around twice the size as the exodus generation – or about 6 million. But then the troubles predicted by the prophets became more pronounced with warfare between Israel and Judah, as well as with the foreign enemies of Syria, Assyria, and finally Babylonia as their kingdom fell. Many who were not killed were taken into captivity. The Israelites were decimated and less than 50,000 would return with Ezra to help rebuild the nation in the 5th century BC, with the majority staying behind in Babylon/Persia.
This return would complete the first sequence of Moses’ prophecy, however there are several signs that this was only a partial and preliminary fulfillment of the predictions. The prophets had painted a picture of the final restoration as Israel largely gathered back in the land and at peace with their neighbors. The people would be whole-heartedly following God, the land would bloom after being desolate, and they would prosper. The people of Israel would never be dislodged again.
These things were not realized with the first return under Ezra. That return was rather meager, with the majority staying behind. The people continued to sin, and conflict and persecution also continued. In fact, history shows that the entire sequence predicted by Moses would repeat a second time, only in a more pronounced way.
Jewish Population Levels in History
One way this second sequence can be seen in history is by isolating the factor of population size. Estimates vary as to the Jewish population that built up by the time of the first century AD, but some put the numbers as reaching about 4.5 million, half living in the land of Israel and half abroad. The horrific Roman defeat of Jews in AD 70 (when the Temple was destroyed) and AD 135 (the Bar Kochba Revolt) would see millions of Jews killed and displaced; many of the survivors being sent as slaves to the mines where they would not survive long.
The Jews experienced strange and inexplicable persecutions for two thousand years with massacres flaring up at frequent intervals. Wherever Jews fled, persecution was not far behind. Not only did this result in the killing of hundreds of thousands over the centuries, the pressures pushed many to abandon their customs and beliefs and merge with the surrounding cultures.
Some historians have estimated that from the second century onwards the world’s Jewish population remained consistently below about 1.5 million. From this tiny population, Jews were scattered to every nation of the world. The violence they faced fits Moses’ prophecy in an uncanny way.
And among these nations shalt thou find no ease, neither shall the sole of thy foot have rest: but the LORD shall give thee there a trembling heart, and failing of eyes, and sorrow of mind: And thy life shall hang in doubt before thee; and thou shalt fear day and night, and shalt have none assurance of thy life: In the morning thou shalt say, Would God it were even! and at even thou shalt say, Would God it were morning! for the fear of thine heart wherewith thou shalt fear, and for the sight of thine eyes which thou shalt see. – Deuteronomy 28:65-67
A small population that persisted for around 1,600 years fits Moses’ prophecy.
And the LORD shall scatter you among the nations, and ye shall be left few in number among the heathen, whither the LORD shall lead you. – Deuteronomy 4:27
Despite the small numbers and the persistent persecution, a Jewish presence was preserved, and in the 18th and 19th centuries a remarkable rebound was witnessed. Numbers climbed steeply until the world Jewish population reached an estimated 16.6 million on the eve of the Holocaust.
Around 6 million Jews were killed by the Nazis, which spurred a return to the land of Israel that had begun in the 1880s. Jewish populations continued a rapid increase after the Holocaust and are set to soon exceed the 16.6 million highpoint. This rapid increase to great numbers also happens to fit another prophecy tied to Israel’s restoration.
…and I will multiply them, and they shall not be few; I will also glorify them, and they shall not be small. – Jeremiah 30:19
Is it merely one more coincidence that the major Jewish return to Israel happened at the same time as the Jewish numbers went from small to great, just as predicted?
Besides the general promise to return Israel to the land, several prophecies (such as in Zechariah chapters 12-14) also seem to require a major Jewish presence in the land of Israel for end times events to make sense.
Clearly, the events prophesied by Moses and the other prophets have not yet been completely fulfilled. Israel is not yet at perpetual peace with its neighbors, nor have the Jewish people, as a whole, returned to God. This wasn’t true of the first sequence in the BC period and it is not yet true of the second sequence. These are all things the prophets connected with the end of days and the coming of the Messiah. But today, not only has a Jewish state been reconstituted, there are more Jews in the land of Israel than at any time in its history, with a population many times larger than historical values. If trends continue, Israel will also soon contain the majority of the world’s Jewish population. As persecution around the world ramps up, more Jews continue to move to Israel. Many are asking if these are signs that the stage is finally being set for the last days.
A Curious Population Phenomena
There is one additional curiosity about this recent population growth of Jews in Israel. The increase is not only from Jews around the globe emigrating to Israel. Israel’s fertility rate is doing something unheard of in the rest of the developed world.
The fertility rate can be defined as the number of children born alive to a woman, averaged across the population. In past centuries it was normal for women to have many more children than is common today. As I look at my own family tree, I can find foremothers with 10 and 12 children around the turn of the 20th century, and this was not very unusual. Some of those children died young as was common at the time.
There are always ups and downs for many reasons such as war or severe economic turmoil, but generally speaking, one of the strongest predictors of fertility rate across a population is that the wealthier a nation becomes, the more its fertility rate drops.
In developed countries under normal conditions, a fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman is considered necessary to maintain a population level (ignoring immigration and emigration). In the United States the fertility rate was over 5 in 1860, in 1960 it had decreased to 3.65, and in 2025 it stood at 1.79 births per woman, below the replacement rate needed to maintain population levels.
This is not unusual. Today the majority of nations in the world (and nearly all developed nations) have fallen below a 2.1 fertility rate, and more countries fall below that level every year. South Korea has reached 0.75, which means without a major change, the next generation in South Korea will be less than half the size of the present generation, and the generation after that will be half again as small. As countries across the world become more developed, fertility rates are decreasing.
In fact, the dire warnings about the planet’s overpopulation heard in recent decades are proving to be false. Global population levels are expected to peak within a few decades before falling. The continuing rise is currently being fuelled mainly by countries in subsaharan Africa, where some countries still have fertility rates around 5.9. But even in these countries, rates are dropping from where they were a few decades ago.
However, there is one country bucking the trend – Israel. Listed below are the 30 wealthiest countries in the world ranked according to their Gross Domestic Product (GDP). All have fertility rates of 1.7 or lower except Israel. Jewish people within Israel (excluding Christians, Muslims, Druze, etc.) have an even higher rate of 3.0. This is across all demographics of Jews, not just the ultra-Orthodox who have much higher rates. Why are Jewish population trends going the opposite direction from the rest of the world?
- Ireland 1.60
- Switzerland 1.44
- Singapore 0.96
- Norway 1.42
- United States 1.62
- Denmark 1.52
- Qatar 1.70
- Netherlands 1.44
- Australia 1.64
- Austria 1.33
- Sweden 1.44
- Belgium 1.39
- Israel 2.75
- Germany 1.46
- United Kingdom 1.54
- Finland 1.30
- Canada 1.33
- United Arab Emirates 1.21
- France 1.64
- New Zealand 1.65
- Cyprus 1.37
- Italy 1.20
- Spain 1.21
- Slovenia 1.58
- South Korea 0.75
- Taiwan 0.86
- Japan 1.23
- Czech Republic 1.47
- Estonia 1.38
- Lithuania 1.22
Countries of at least 1 million population ranked in order according to their 2026 GDP per capita, with the 2025 fertility rate of each listed afterward. (GDP according to the IMF, and fertility rate according to the United Nations)
Conclusion
There are legitimate differences of opinion as to the exact nature of God’s covenant relationship with the Jewish people, as well as end times scenarios, in light of New Testament teachings. However, when examining history, it can be seen that for close to 2,000 years the world’s Jewish population has remained small, staying below 1.5 million. Today, despite persecution and massacres, the world Jewish population is more than ten times higher than historic norms and climbing fast. This recalls God’s workings with the children of Israel in Egypt before their exodus. The multiplication is taking place in the same era as their major return to the land of Israel, and these things align with prophecies made thousands of years ago.
Could this be one more indication that the strange circumstances of Jewish history are not mere coincidence, and that God’s hand is still on the people of Israel? Keep thinking!
TOP PHOTO: The Western Wall in Jerusalem. (credit: Daniel Majewski, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons)
